The Availability Heuristic is the tendency to estimate the probability of something happening based on how many examples readily come to mind. An example of this is seeing the wealth of celebrities and believing acquiring that wealth is common and easily obtainable. After seeing several news reports of car thefts in your neighborhood, you might start to accept that such crimes are more common than they are. You might also believe that plane crashes are more common than they are because you can effortlessly think of several examples.
These thoughts are mental shortcuts that cause us to incorrectly assess the likelihood of events. It is very basic to carry out because the brain attempts to simplify any idea or information that requires analysis. It desires to make sense of something and move on. You glance at a cloud and, it’s just a cloud. You stare at a cloud, it looks like a pillow, a bird, a face, well no. It’s just a cloud but, there is no one shape for a cloud. Your brain goes into identification mode for this object you are staring at so you can move on.
How does this hurt us? Although the brain is attempting to help in these scenarios, it does more harm than good. One may think seeing the success of many on a TV screen and believing it is immediately within their reach is a positive. It is not. It tells the person that the journey to that goal is a short and simple one. Going two or three steps down the line of the story, you’ll see this person running into roadblocks, becoming discouraged, and looking down on themselves. Those feelings are from the Availability Heuristic. Roadblocks occur but, they shouldn’t cause more than frustration. If a person gets to the point of discouragement, it is because of preconceived notions. Looking down on yourself would follow discouragement.
The goal is presented to you, by you, as uncomplicated and obtainable. If you come up short, the only problem to point at is yourself. It is a tough spot we put ourselves in because of our shortcut method of thinking. We should know how we operate to prevent ourselves from being our biggest enemy. Grasping that our first thought is not always for the best or even correct can help when we embark on a long journey. We can still use the shortcut method but only for menial tasks or things that require immediate decisions. This method will allow your natural brain-behavior to have a place in your daily life but not allow it to put you in a place where you are employing false information. It is a balancing act you’ll only improve upon over time. Do not shy away from getting better.
When we think of easily obtainable goals, it is usually money or success-based. We see people during our lives obtain one or both with seemingly incredible ease. We rarely, if ever, know the back story. How did that person get there? If it was at a young age, were they that much ahead of their peers that they propelled themselves to the top by showing exponential potential? An example would be seeing athletes who make a ridiculous amount of money because of their skill and notoriety. Athletic ability will peak at an early age. Yes, these people are young. They are light years ahead of others their age and, by default, superior to people outside of their age range. It seems as if becoming one of them is a high probability because we constantly see them.
The truth is there are less than 6,000 total players in major American pro sports. (Feel free to check my math) 6,000 players/ 330 million Americans in the USA. In layman’s terms, it’s an infrequent occurrence. It is not impossible but rare. Let’s take becoming a billionaire. Billionaires are another type of person we see daily that is rarer than we think. There are 614 billionaires in the US as of 2019. Yes, that is it. Many of us can run off about 10 of them, which is impressive because of the small amount of them but, we see them. How many of us can name 10 doctors? There are around 1 million physicians in the US but, everyone understands and respects the difficulty of becoming one. Would we if we saw and heard from them more? Most likely not.
In closing, availability is misconstrued. When supply is on full display while demand is a mystery to you, research is required. Yes, your work ethic, intelligence, talent, and discipline will help. You must understand that the larger your goal, the fewer people you’ll see obtain it. Even when you see people who don’t seem the most qualified for what they accomplished, know they beat out millions who attempted to do the same thing.
Whatever it is you are attempting to do, respect the magnitude of it. Don’t accept the quick “I can do it because many others have” thought. If your dream is big enough, treat it as such. Outwork, outsmart, out-innovate, out-class the competition you can see but approach your goal as if there is only one spot left. See to it that it is yours.
Food for Thought…You do the Dishes!
